I did some math. 32 games until the all-star break, to be at .500 at that point (which would still not make us 1st) we'd need to win 19 of them.
Since we have series in Minnesota and Chicago as part of those 32 games we do have the potential to crawl up the ladder if we manage to beat both. We do have some crappy interleague teams on the schedule, but one of those crappy NL teams is the Reds, who swept us last month. I'm not calling anything this time.
We also have to play TB. I'm hoping we'll take a majority of these games; but if we don't. . .
Projecting our current win-loss ratio out to the All-Star break, we will be 42-52. We would then have 68 games to play after. From a record of 42-52, we would need to go 39-29 - which is to say .570 - from the All-Star Break to the end of the season in order to finish at .500. To finish first in the division if Chicago stays where they are, we'd need to go .683 through the end of the season. And to have a shot at the wildcard - heh - we'd have to do the same or better, unless the other divisions start sucking really bad all of a sudden.
We can't hit for crap and two of our starters (pitchers) - including one of our aces - are on the DL, one of whom will be there for the rest of the season.
Of course, anything could happen, other teams could get a spate of injuries, and an asteroid could destroy Chicago; but from where I'm sitting, our statistical liklihood of finishing on the top of the food chain has just about evaporated. Where we sit at the All-Star break will tell a great deal, because of the teams we play between now and then, and because of how many games will be behind us and in front of us at that point (just about half).
But basically we would have to play better than any team in baseball for the rest of the season in order to get a clear shot at the playoffs. I guess what I'm getting at is the math is starting to stack up enormously against our getting into the playoffs - much less through them - this year. This is not to say that I will not be watching and hoping we pull our act together and win enough to do it - I sure will be hoping that - but the math is the math, and every time we lose - especially within the division (to DETROIT?!) - we put another nail in the coffin.
Wedge and the gang in the front office should be taking a hard look at things right now. I'd really think about making a trade to move CC and get something for him while we can, maybe something that will still be good next year. Got to think about how our assets can best be made to serve the team down the road, because this year - well - it just doesn't look like it's gonna be our year.
